Yesterday , I did a simple rough calculation about Basic Motors to try to get at how much manufacturing job loss one might attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productiveness will increase. Numerous commenters objected that my assumptions have been too simplistic, notably in neglecting the home content in international autos and the importance of shifts in the provide chain over time.
The odd-trying line in this graph is the one for home consumption of autos and components as a fraction of GDP; the road begins to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It's odd to me because a graph of US automobile sales is basically flat from 2001 to 2007 at between 16 and 17 million vehicles per yr. Reading off Stuart's graph above, the gross consumption line starts at about three.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to around 2.eight% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Looking at BEA Desk 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% throughout that interval.
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