Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Normal Motors to try to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one might attribute to foreign competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Varied commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the domestic content in foreign autos and the significance of shifts in the provide chain over time.
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The odd-wanting line on this graph is the one for home consumption of autos and components as a fraction of GDP; the line begins to drop after 2002, only reversing in 2010. It is odd to me because a graph of US car gross sales is essentially flat from 2001 to 2007 at between 16 and 17 million autos per year. Studying off Stuart's graph above, the gross consumption line starts at about 3.7% of GDP in 2001 and drops to round 2.eight% in 2007, so roughly a 25% drop. Looking at BEA Table 1.1.5. US GDP rose 36% throughout that period.
Complicating your train even more is the truth that people are inclined to keep their vehicles longer nowadays than they used to. This is in large part as a result of high quality has gone up, reducing the frequency needed to buy a brand new automotive. I think this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other elements you mentioned.